This week’s readings include an opinion piece by Robert Shiller, a report on the Southeast Asian palm oil sector, reflections on the 20th anniversary of the Hong Kong handover from Philip Bowring, thoughts on the prospect of a US-China conflict and a look at how Facebook’s growth team got the company to two billion users.

• In long run, there’s no such thing as an Einstein investor: Robert Shiller on why no single strategy is likely to beat the market forever.
• SE Asian palm oil sector report: Chain Reaction Research looks at the impact of undeveloped land on the market cap of publicly listed palm oil companies in the region.
• An ageing, worried Hong Kong marks 20 years out of UK’s clutches: Philip Bowring on why optimism fades for freedom, prosperity and democracy.
• What if the Chinese are just biding their time?: Avoiding the ‘Thucydides Trap,’ but not the way Graham Allison envisions.
• How Facebook used science and empathy to reach two billion users: Facebook’s growth team has a methodical approach to understanding what new users want, and a surprisingly broad mandate.