An interesting panel session at Bloomberg’s recent New Economy Gateway Latin America event, featuring Iván Arriagada, CEO, Antofagasta Plc; Fernanda Ávila, Secretary of Mining for Argentina; and Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman, Ivanhoe Mines. The video is embedded below, along with some brief highlights/notes (edited and paraphrased for brevity).

Bloomberg’s Odd Lots also had a very good podcast with Nick Snowdon from GS, discussing why the copper market is expected to be incredibly tight in the coming decade (link here).

• Humanity has mined 700 million metric tons of copper since the Babylonian days and that is what has built our modern world. To maintain ~3% global economic growth, we need to mine as much copper in the next 22-24 years as we have mined in all of human history. And that is without electrification. If we start talking about the new economy and a reduction of global warming, the mining industry has to do an enormous amount of work to find the copper metal we need for that transformation. 
• There is also war and tension in the global economy. So their companies can’t go mine in say Russia, Ukraine or Kazakhstan. They can’t go where it rains too much because it creates issues in the tailings dam and potential environmental liabilities. And as metal prices rise, everybody also wants a piece of the pie. But we will not have a new economy without mining – cannot get there from here. We cannot get rid of oil, coal, hydrocarbon emissions because solar and wind are 10-20x copper intensive than the old ways of generating energy.
• Countries such as the US are very hungry for mining, they are realizing that the critical minerals they need for the greening of the country but also for the military don’t exist in the US. So we have this concept of friendshoring, where they will buy from Australia, Canada, France etc. Now that we are balkanizing the world economy, it is even more challenging. You can see all the global inflation we have as the integrated world economy is slowly breaking down. In the middle of this chaos, it is the miners who have to find these metals to give us a clean, green economy. People are worried about the environment but, paradoxically, you won’t have a better environment without these metals.
• One feature of the copper industry is that it is also becoming difficult to find new targets and orebodies. And once you have a discovery, it probably takes 10-15 years to convert that into metal you can use. And the lead times are only getting longer when you think about building those mines sustainably and with the appropriate ESG characteristics.
• What the mining industry needs to reinvent is its entire relationship with host communities. You can think of the mine as the hardware, but the software is how the whole enterprise of mining relates to all the people around the mines, within a 25-50km radius. Traditionally, the mining industry only worried about the hardware aspect, but the industry needs to now look at it as a holistic enterprise. Unfortunately mining has had a terrible reputation historically. It is also important to bring more women into the industry. At the same time, he thinks the industry has made some huge unrecognized strides in how it relates to the environment and local communities.
• On the regulatory side, Ávila discussed how mining is a key priority in Argentina right now. They realize the world needs more of their minerals as it transitions to cleaner energies and greater energy efficiency. They are actively fostering investments from different parts of the world, trying to get more exploration in Argentina. There are 6 lithium projects under construction, and 2 seeking to expand current operations. In the next 5 years, she thinks they can grow their current production ~6x. Also have copper projects that are under advanced exploration stages, and 1 under construction.
• They want these projects to develop under sustainable ESG practices and frameworks. Focus is not only on exports, but providing clear benefits to the communities that surround these projects, who are in need of infrastructure, development, jobs etc. The fact that Argentina started mining later than other countries and its neighbors in the region has a silver lining, because they have been able to introduce ESG frameworks from the beginning of the life of projects.
• On potentially less favorable regulation in some markets (e.g. Chile, Peru), Friedland made the point that this is a global market, with global competition. The ore grades are much higher in Africa. There is more water available, more hydroelectricity and a very young population. So governments have to be very careful. Largest producer of copper used to be the DRC, but it was surpassed by Chile. They are now the world leader but there are challengers.